Breaking insights on the economy, market volatility, policy changes and geopolitical events
MARKETS CONTINUED TO SWING WILDLY on April 7 as investors struggled to process a world of uncertainty over tariff policies.1 “The U.S. tariffs announced last week were far higher than expected and based on formulas investors haven’t seen before,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. Market worries include a potential growth and demand shock to the economy, higher inflation and escalating trade wars, he adds. “It is possible now to expect 0% earnings growth for the year if all of these uncertainties last into the summer months," Hyzy says.
Considering the many unknowns, including retaliatory tariffs and possible negotiations underway, “It’s impossible to gauge how long high tariffs might last, and what the endgame is,” Hyzy says. While swift negotiations could reset tariff policies and support market recovery, an extended trade war raises fears of recession and stagflation — stagnant growth and higher prices. As events unfold, Hyzy notes, investors should avoid making sudden decisions based on headlines.
In the days to come, here are some possible developments the Chief Investment Office (CIO) will be tracking:
“For the next six months-plus, we see two potential scenarios with equal likelihood,” Hyzy says.
Scenario 1. Countries scramble to negotiate substantive trade deals that bring tariffs down. “Bond yields would stay low but drift up slightly, and equity markets would recover some of the losses, led by technology, financials and consumer discretionary sectors.” Even in this positive scenario, economic growth will likely take time to recover.
Scenario 2. The global standoff continues without substantive trade deals until countries realize economies are heading towards recession. “We could see bond yields, oil prices and commodities fall and stocks take longer to recover. The worry shifts to a steeper and extended downturn in corporate earnings.”
With events so fluid, investors should prepare for further volatility as well as “positive surprises” as trade negotiations unfold, Hyzy advises. Exiting markets one day could prevent you from realizing gains if markets rebound the next. Now may be a good time to speak with your advisor if you work with one. “At a time when new information is coming in every hour, it’s important to have a plan and stay disciplined,” he says. Long-term investors may find potential opportunities to add to their portfolios during declines, Hyzy adds. You might also consider dollar-cost averaging,2 which could enable you to buy relatively more shares at lower cost.
For continuing insights from Chris Hyzy on tariff-related volatility, be sure to listen to our latest CIO Market Update audiocast, and check back here for regular updates on market conditions.
1The Wall Street Journal, “Trump threatens additional 50% tariff on China,” April 7, 2025.
2A program of regular investment cannot assure a profit or protect against a loss. A continuous or periodic investment plan involves investment in shares over time regardless of fluctuating price levels. You should consider your financial ability to continue purchasing shares during periods of low price levels.
WHAT JUST HAPPENED? A tariff on nearly all U.S. imports, announced April 2, sparked a global stock plunge the following day.1 In early morning trading, Dow futures were down 1,200 or, 2.8%.2 The tariffs set a baseline of 10% but are far higher for many countries — including 34% for China, 24% for Japan and 20% for the European Union.3
“Though asset markets have been preparing for some time, the announcement was more aggressive than consensus expectations,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. A Chief Investment Office Investments Insights report, “Eyes Wide Open,” analyzes the current situation and what may be ahead.
“We believe market volatility is here to stay until we better understand how all of this plays out,” Hyzy says. Negotiations and deals among trading partners may lead to tariff adjustments and a settling of volatility, he adds. In the meantime, markets will likely experience a flight to safety.
“The largest concern now is the potential for a growth shock,” Hyzy says. As yet unanswered questions include the overall impact on global trade, potential secondary shocks to the services sector and possible monetary policy effects, he adds. “Despite uncertainties that may last for weeks or months, we believe the U.S. economy will be able to stave off a recession in the near term.” Corporate earnings, while potentially vulnerable to extended high tariffs, remain strong and U.S. consumers resilient, he believes.
“During this time of assessment, it is important to play both defense and offense,” Hyzy suggests. “Stay calm, diversify, and build a plan to reposition and rebalance your portfolio to take advantage of the improved prices that this uncertainty has created.”
Read the Investment Insights, “Eyes Wide Open”. Check here for regular updates on market conditions and be sure to listen to our latest CIO Market Update audiocast.
SO FAR, IT’S BEEN ONE OF THOSE YEARS: Markets rebounded after a mid-March correction,1 but they continued to be volatile into the end of the first quarter over tariffs, inflation and other concerns. “We expect ongoing choppiness as markets try to repair themselves and adjust to policy uncertainties,” says Kirsten Cabacungan, investment strategist for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Yet, amid the tumult, we see encouraging signals that stocks could start to recover ahead.”
Bullish versus bearish attitudes in the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey plummeted to -40% in recent weeks — far below the long-term average of 6.5%.2 “While that sounds like bad news, the stock market tends to rebound on the heels of investor sentiment hitting rock bottom,” says Cabacungan. “Historically, the S&P 500 is up 90% of the time both six months and a full year later, with gains averaging 15.1% after six months and 22.3% after a year.”3
Though a few mega technology stocks have dominated equity markets in recent years, “returns in 2025 have broadened to include a wider array of sectors, styles and countries,” she says. In recent back-to-back sessions, more than 90% of companies on the S&P 500 rose on the same day.4 “The last time that happened was the week before the bear market trough in October 2022, which kicked off the most recent bull market advance,” Cabacungan adds. S&P 500 sectors like energy and healthcare, which struggled in 2024, have outperformed in early 2025.
“Volatility and market broadening both underscore the importance of diversification across and within asset classes,” Cabacungan says. Temporary downturns could provide opportunities to add underrepresented sectors. “While we still favor U.S. equities, you might consider adding exposure to international markets, which recently have outperformed the U.S. for the first time in years,” she says. An advisor can help ensure that any portfolio decisions align with your long-term goals.
For a closer look at signals pointing to a potential recovery, read “What comes after the market correction?” in the CIO’s Capital Market Outlook and check out the latest CIO Market Update audiocast.
SO, WHAT JUST HAPPENED? Equity markets dropped on Monday amid growing concern over the economy. Technology stocks led the decline, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index falling by nearly 4%, and the S&P 500 down 2.7%.1 Many news reports attributed the volatility to concerns around tariffs and recent comments from the administration about a possible recession.2
“While some Wall Street observers have raised the probability of a recession to nearly one in two, we don’t see it that way,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “We see this, first and foremost, as a major rebalancing as market sentiment shifts away from growth areas, such as technology, which have dominated in recent years, towards more defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities and consumer staples.” He adds, “We believe this market drawdown, accelerated by profit-taking, is driven by economic growth worries, which in our view are exaggerated.”
It’s more common than not to experience one or more corrections of 10% or more in any given year. “While volatility is always unsettling, investors should avoid sudden decisions to sell assets,” Hyzy says. “We view this weakness as a potential buying opportunity and a time for investors to consider rebalancing their portfolios,” he explains. “Now may be a time to explore diversifying into Europe and other developed markets, which are finally becoming more attractive after years of underperforming relative to the U.S.”
For a deeper dive into what’s driving the markets now and how you can consider responding, read the latest Investment Insights report from the Chief Investment Office, “From off the horse to back in the saddle,” and check out the latest CIO Market Update audiocast.
THE OTHER SHOE HAS FALLEN. After a 30-day delay, the U.S. imposed threatened tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and increased tariffs on China early this week. America’s three largest trading partners responded by announcing plans to impose retaliatory tariffs, causing market volatility to rise sharply,1 despite reports that a compromise might be reached, limiting the number of sectors subject to tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. Later in the week, the administration gave Mexico and Canada temporary reprieves on some goods, announcing that imports trading under the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would be exempt through April 2.2
Amid all the uncertainty, “investors are assessing the impact of these new tariffs on U.S. growth, business confidence and corporate earnings,” says Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. In a recent CIO Capital Market Outlook, Quinlan notes that the U.S. economy, which depends much less on trade than on the extraordinary power of consumer consumption, could be relatively well-positioned to withstand any negative impacts. Below, he offers insights on what investors could expect next and how they might respond.
Expect more turbulence ahead. A trade war could lead to global supply-chain disruptions, lower corporate earnings, higher prices for goods and services, higher-for-longer inflation and a pause in the global easing of interest rates, Quinlan says.
Focus on high-quality companies. In that environment, investors should consider companies with strong balance sheets, Quinlan adds. “Look to strike a balance between growth stocks, largely in technology, and value sectors such as healthcare, industrials and financials,” he suggests. “Dividend-paying stocks also look more attractive now, as do defense and cyber security leaders.”
Consider alternative assets* and be selective about fixed income. Quinlan suggests thinking about alternative assets such as gold and other commodities, real estate and private credit. If interest rates rise, that could support allocations to investment-grade bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and short-duration bonds.
Combine caution with calm. Amid today’s considerable uncertainty, Quinlan advises investors to stay focused on their goals. “If you work with an advisor, speak with them about the best way forward,” he says. “In this era of shifting dynamics, nimbleness and rebalancing remain prerequisites.”
Stay connected with the latest insights by tuning in to the CIO’s Market Update audiocast series.
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*Alternative investments are intended for qualified investors only. Alternative investments such as derivatives, hedge funds, private equity funds and funds of funds can result in higher return potential but also higher loss potential. There are special risks associated with an investment in commodities, such as gold, including market price fluctuations, regulatory change, interest rate change, credit risk, economic changes and the impact of adverse political or financial factors.
1The Wall Street Journal, “Trump's Tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, with added duties on China,” March 4, 2025.
2The New York Times, “Trump Administration Live Updates: In reversal, most new tariffs on Mexico and Canada suspended,” March 6, 2025.
4CEIC Data, “United States Private Consumption: % of GDP,” December 2024.
BEWARE OF SIMPLE ANSWERS. “While political disputes often center on bilateral trade imbalances, today’s global economy is complex, with many moving parts,” says Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “You need to consider how trade has evolved, and which sectors may be at risk.”
With potential tariffs likely on the table for the foreseeable future, the February 10 CIO Capital Market Outlook unpacks some of these complexities and offers insights on what they might mean for the economy, the markets and your investments.
First, the U.S. economy is somewhat insulated from potential impacts: “Though it’s one the world’s largest trading nations, the U.S. is less trade-dependent than many economies in Europe, Asia and emerging markets,” Quinlan says. Exports comprise just 11% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), compared with more than 50% of European Union GDP.1 “Still, sustained, far-reaching tariffs could drag corporate earnings and U.S. economic growth and spur inflation,” he cautions.
Second, individual sectors may be at risk, and they bear watching: Trade today is less about imports versus exports than intricate cross-border investments and partnerships. “Tariffs and counter-tariffs could throw sand in the gears of U.S. multinationals,” he says. “Autos, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas and semiconductors may be at risk, along with retail and the food and beverage sector.”
Third, small businesses are not immune: “While investors may assume trade disputes affect only the largest companies, smaller and mid-sized businesses have reaped the rewards of a world trading system that is more open than closed,” Quinlan says. “If anything, sustained tariffs could be harder on them than on large-cap companies.”
The bottom line for investors: Despite the flurry of headlines, the tariff picture remains uncertain and evolving and the U.S. economy is resilient, Quinlan says. Investors should keep a close watch on specific sectors of the economy but avoid making sudden decisions. “Stay focused on your goals, speak with your advisor, and use temporary volatility as a way to strategically add to your portfolio,” he suggests.
One final note: Inflation ticked up 0.5%, slightly more than expected, in January, according to the Labor Department.2 For insights on the potential impact of tariffs on inflation moving forward, read “Where We Stand: CIO Tariff Scorecard” in the February 10 issue of Capital Market Outlook.
THERE’S A NEW AI KID ON THE BLOCK — China-based startup DeepSeek — and it’s causing some angst among investors and U.S.-based companies in the AI space. Technology stocks tumbled on January 27, shortly after DeepSeek introduced its latest large-language model, a powerful chatbot reportedly consuming less power and developed at lower cost than existing models.
Market concerns may be overblown, believes Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “This new competitor is part of an evolving tech evolution holding significant promise for the economy and long-term investors.” In fact, he notes, “Competition should only help to accelerate innovation.” Taking up the challenge, a number of companies involved in the AI space made a point of confirming their capital spending commitments on earnings calls after the DeepSeek announcement last week.
Watch the video above for more of Hyzy’s thoughts on risks and opportunities in the AI space and why he believes the U.S. is well-positioned to remain the global leader in AI innovation. You’ll find a deeper dive into the disruption caused by DeepSeek and what it might mean for your investments in this week’s Capital Market Outlook.
AFTER THREE HEADLINE-GRABBING interest rate cuts in 2024, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) concluded its January meeting on Wednesday, January 29, by announcing that it would hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%,1 offering little indication of when it might cut again. The pause was widely expected, and markets largely took it in stride. “The lack of drama was intentional. We believe the Fed wanted this meeting to be a ‘yawn,’” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
“Market expectations have shifted significantly in the past couple of months from the original four cuts in 2025 to one — or none,” Hyzy adds. Wednesday’s widely anticipated pause reinforces that “any additional cuts will be driven by hard data as the Fed balances its twin mandates of controlling stubborn inflation and maintaining low unemployment,” he says. A recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields, for example, reflected a fundamentally strong economy and ongoing inflation concerns, both likely factors in slowing the pace of cuts.
For more on interest rates, bond yields and inflation, watch “What’s up with 10-year Treasury yields?” In this conversation, Hyzy talks with Matthew Diczok, head of Fixed Income Strategy for the Chief Investment Office, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, about moves investors can consider in the current rate environment. You can catch Hyzy’s market insights weekly on the CIO’s Market Update audiocast.
INVESTORS EXPECTING A PAIR OF INTEREST RATE CUTS by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) in 2025 are now adjusting to the prospect of a single cut — or none. A surprisingly strong labor report released January 10 showed the economy adding 256,000 jobs.1 While good news for workers and the economy, the report intensifies ongoing concerns over sticky inflation.
“With inflation likely averaging around 3%, rather than the 2% target, the Fed has shifted from a rate-cutting approach to a wait-and-see, watching from the sidelines approach,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Any future cuts will be driven by data rather than by market hopes and expectations.” Based on current data, BofA Global Research now believes the Fed could put cuts on hold for 2025, Hyzy notes.
The delays are a major disappointment for investors who originally expected up to four additional cuts in 2025.2 Lower rates reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers — a boon for rate-sensitive industries like housing, automobiles and small businesses. Yet after a years-long battle with inflation, the Fed is wary of cuts that could prompt a new spike in prices. They’ll be closely monitoring economic data such as inflation, housing prices and unemployment, as well as financial markets. Some reason for cautious optimism: Core inflation and wholesale prices both rose by a lower-than-expected 0.2% in December from the previous month.3
Rate uncertainties have contributed to recent stock market weakness, Hyzy notes. “After historic gains in 2023 and 2024, the equity ‘fizzle’ that started in December could extend into February, with periodic volatility.” At the same time, “investors should avoid reading too much into the timing of individual cuts,” Hyzy believes. “As the year progresses, we expect markets to refocus on the fundamental strengths of the U.S. economy, such as consumer spending, innovation and, especially, corporate earnings,” he adds. “We still expect double-digit earnings growth for 2025 into 2026.” Investors should look for potential buying opportunities amid early-year volatility and emphasize diversification across and within asset classes.
1CNN Business, “Job growth skyrocketed in December, boosting one of the strongest labor markets in US history,” Jan. 10, 2025.
2Yahoo Finance, “Fed cuts rates by quarter point, scales back cuts for 2025,” Dec. 19, 2024.
3CNBC, “10-year Treasury yield pulls back after core inflation is light in December,” Jan. 15, 2025; CNBC, “Inflation watch: Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in December, less than expected.” Jan. 14, 2025.
STRONG CORPORATE EARNINGS, DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS and resilient consumers: It all adds up to a favorable environment for U.S. equities and investors in 2025 and beyond. So, what could go wrong?
“Markets are never linear,” says Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Even when things look bullish, it’s important to consider risks that could cause the bull to stumble.” Below are five possible scenarios to keep an eye on.
1. Higher-than-expected inflation delays and derails rate cuts, rattling the market near-term. Inflationary expectations have shifted higher in early 2025, triggering a rethink and reset about U.S. monetary policy. The market is now pricing in one rate cut this year,1 while BofA Global Research economists expect the Fed to pause altogether in 2025.
2. Gridlock thwarts policies. Many expect single-party control in Washington to bring market-friendly tax and regulation changes in 2025. Still, enacting legislation is complex, especially with a slim House majority, and the shape and timing remain fluid.
3. AI payoff takes a while. Amid massive capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, just 6% of U.S. firms currently use AI to boost productivity and produce goods and services.2 While the transformative benefits are real, an open question is how quickly AI will drive substantial economic growth.
4. Relations with China worsen. With the U.S. and China already at odds over trade, technology and Taiwan, tariffs and retaliations could deteriorate a relationship still vital to both economies.
5. Deficits unnerve markets. A dynamic economy and global appetite for U.S. Treasurys have so far enabled the federal government to manage its finances despite surging budget deficits. Without budget reforms, though, growing deficit concerns could disrupt markets.
“Be aware of risks but don’t be constrained by them,” Quinlan advises. “Investors should expect ‘chop and churn’ and stay invested as these forces play out. Given the underlying positives, market pullbacks may offer opportunities to add high-quality assets that fit with your long-term strategy.”
For regular updates on potential risks and opportunities throughout the year, tune in to the CIO’s Market Update audiocast series, and follow Merrill on Instagram. and Facebook.
AS AN EVENTFUL 2024 WINDS DOWN, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for investors, believes Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Resilient U.S. corporate earnings, ongoing interest rate cuts (though likely at a slower pace than previously expected, as the Federal Reserve indicated when they announced their third cut of the year this week), a return to a more normal bond market, disruptive innovation and an emerging ‘asset-light’ economy should combine to create a powerful launchpad for a new era of potential growth,” he says.
For many useful suggestions on how you can prepare, tune in to the 2025 Year Ahead Outlook webcast, “Get ready for what’s next,” if you haven’t already watched it. Another good way to ring in the New Year, financially? Consider making the following three investing resolutions.
“Some investors look for the perfect time to enter or re-enter markets,” Hyzy says. “The best approach is to invest steadily.” Past performance is no guarantee of future results, of course, but since early 2023 the economy has proven far more resilient than economists expected.1 Equity investors who stayed out of the markets fearing a possible recession would have missed S&P 500 gains of 24% in 20232 and more than 26% in 2024 (as of Dec. 11)3.
“We expect continued economic and market growth in 2025,” Hyzy adds. “But there are risks, and short-term swings are unpredictable. Those uncertainties only reinforce the importance of a disciplined strategy built around your personal goals.” Dollar cost averaging — investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, no matter what the markets are doing — can help smooth the effect of ups and downs.
“We talk a lot about the need to diversify across and within asset classes. That’s especially important for stock investors in 2025,” notes Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “While the seven largest companies in the S&P 500 currently represent about 30% of the index’s market capitalization,4 improving fundamentals among the other 493 on that list could potentially create broader opportunities,” McGregor says. “Diversifying your stock portfolio could help you weather volatility and capture new areas of growth,” she adds.
Investors lately have enjoyed attractive cash and short-term bond returns thanks in part to a relatively rare, inverted yield curve with short-term yields outpacing long-term yields. “We expect the yield curve to normalize in 2025 with long-term rates steepening relative to short-term rates,” says Matthew Diczok, the CIO’s head of Fixed Income Strategy. “You may find that longer-duration bonds offer returns above inflation while helping to mitigate volatility risks in your stock portfolio.”
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1The New York Times, “Economists predicted a recession. So far they’ve been wrong,” Jan. 26, 2024.
2MarketWatch, “Stock Market today: S&P 500 ends slightly lower but posts 24% 2023 gain,” Dec. 29, 2023.
3MarketWatch, “S&P 500 Index,” Consulted Dec. 11, 2024.
4Chief Investment Office, Viewpoint, December 2024.
5As of Dec. 6. Reuters, “S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record closing highs; Lululemon gains, data supports rate cut view,” Dec. 6, 2024.
IN A WIDELY EXPECTED MOVE, THE FEDERAL RESERVE (the Fed) announced their third and last rate cut of the year yesterday — another quarter-point drop. While the announcement was expected, remarks made by Fed chair Jerome Powell indicating a slower pace of cuts, from an expected four to two in 2025, poured cold water on the equity markets. By market close, the three major stock indices were down 2.5 to 3 percent or more for the day, while Treasury yields climbed.1
“Based on the latest data on inflation, the economy and the job market, the BofA Global Research team was already forecasting only two cuts for 2025,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Clearly, many market participants expected more.”
Investors have been looking forward to the potential for continued strong economic growth, healthy corporate profits and premium stock valuations in 2025, says Hyzy. The Fed’s data-driven forecast, based on uncertainty around the future path of inflation and the labor market, pushed the yields on Treasurys higher and affected equities, particularly in sectors most sensitive to high interest rates, negatively. High-growth equities and shares in sectors sensitive to high rates led the market declines, notes Hyzy.
“Equities have already begun to bounce back, but there’s little doubt that investors will continue to remain on edge, especially with a lack of clarity around a possible government shutdown causing more volatility,” notes Hyzy. But, amid the uncertainty, some things haven’t changed. “As always, it’s important to stay diversified and focused on your goals,” he adds.
“We still have high conviction in our themes of higher economic growth and profits for 2025, driven by increased productivity, a more normal yield curve, wider participation across the equity markets, a positive view on small- and mid-cap shares, and an emerging asset-light era that will benefit companies more resistant to interest-rate fluctuations.” In fact, he adds, “A short-term reset, such as we’ve just seen, only creates a stronger base from which to begin 2025.”
For more insights on how you can prepare for risks and opportunities in the year ahead, watch our Outlook 2025 program “Get ready for what’s next.” To learn more about this week’s Fed decision and resulting market volatility, read the latest Investment Insights report, “Fed flashes yellow.”
IN THE INFORMATION AGE, CORPORATE DOMINANCE no longer necessarily means having the biggest factories and longest production lines. The financial edge increasingly goes to companies with fewer fixed assets and greater flexibility, says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “As we look ahead to the new year, the asset-light economy is one of our key growth themes for 2025 and beyond.”
“Compared with manufacturing and other asset-heavy industries, asset-light companies — many of them in the tech and healthcare sectors — generally are more focused on intellectual property than real-world assets, and they have more capital to spend on high-growth areas of their businesses,” Hyzy says. With less need for credit to finance fixed assets, they’re more resistant to interest rate fluctuations and they are often less labor-intensive. “An economy increasingly dominated by asset-light companies could help drive long-term growth and an extended bull market for investors,” Hyzy believes.
“The asset-light economy should gain momentum in 2025 and 2026, thanks to some economic bright spots we see developing,” he says. “The rapid advance of artificial intelligence and other technologies is already bringing greater productivity and operating leverage to companies across industries. And markets generally are rebalancing away from dominance by a small handful of companies, leaving more room for younger asset-light companies to grow.”
But, even as their share of the economy diminishes, asset-heavy industries will remain essential, notes Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. In fact, thanks to technology’s enormous need for energy and other resources, asset-heavy companies could even experience a boost as they help to meet the need for more infrastructure to power the asset-light economy.
“Big picture, asset light’s increasing dominance, with its potential to drive higher productivity and profits, is good for the economy and markets,” sums up Hyzy. But, notes McGregor, “Valuation of these companies can be a challenge, and that’s something investors need to think about in the lens of this new asset-light world.“ As always, it’s important to maintain a diversified portfolio.
For a deeper look at the asset-light economy and what it could mean for your investments in the year ahead, read the CIO’s December Viewpoint, “2025 Year Ahead: The Advancement of the Asset-Light Era.” And be sure to tune in to the Outlook 2025 program “Get ready for what’s next” for a full view of what to expect across sectors, industries and asset classes in the new year and beyond.
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